Hitegwe intambara ya gatatu y’Isi, akarere gahagarare hehe?- Impuguke
Guhera kuwa kane tariki 24 Gashyantare 2022, u Burusiya bwatangiye kurasa kuri Ukraine, nyuma y’ubwumvikane buke hagati y’ibihugu byombi.
Mu kirere, ku butaka, no mu mazi, u Burusiya bwagabye ibitero simusiga kuri Ukrainne, igihugu cy’abaturage miliyoni 44. Mu mezi ashize Perezida Vladimir Putin yakomeje guhakana ko agamije gutera umuturanyi, nyuma arenga ku masezerano y’amahoro, yohereza ingabo ze ku mipaka ya Ukraine mu majyaruguru, iburasirazuba, n’amajyepfo.
Ibibuga by’indege, ibiro n’ibirindiro bya gisirikare niho harashweho mbere mu mijyi ikomakomeye muri Ukraine, harimo n’ikibuga cy’indege mpuzamahanga cya Boryspil i Kyiv.
Nyuma ibifaru n’abasirikare bahise bisuka muri Ukraine mu majyaruguru ashyira iburasirazuba, hafi ya Kharkiv, umujyi utuwe n’abantu hafi miliyoni 1.4; iburasirazuba hafi ya Luhansk, guturuka mu gihugu gituranyi cya Bielorussie m majyaruguru, hamwe no guturuka kuri Crimea mu majyepfo.
Ingabo z’Uburusiya zafashe ikibuga cy’indege cya gisirikare kiri hanze gato ya Kyiv kandi zagejeje indege mu mijyi minini iri ku byambu ya Odesa na Mariupol.
Umwanya muto mbere y’uko ibi bitero bitangira kuwa kane, Putin yagiye kuri televiziyo atangaza ko Uburusiya “budashobora gutekana, gutera imbere, no kubaho” kubera icyo yise ikibazo gihoraho cya Ukraine y’ibi bihe.
U Burusiya ntibwifuza ko Ukraine iba muri NATO, mu gihe bamwe bavuga ko icyo gihugu gishaka kwigarurira Ukraine.
Ku bibazo abantu bibaza kuri iyo ntambara, The Source Post yegereye Niyonzima Oswald, impuguke mu gukemura amakimbirane, ufite impamyabushobozi mpuzamahanga y’icyiciro cya gatatu cya kaminuza mu mahoro, amakimbirane n’iterambere (An International Master’s Degree in Peace, Conflict and Development Studies) yavanye muri Kaminuza ya UJI muri Espagne.
Niyonzima kandi asanzwe ari umunyamakuru ubimazemo imyaka irenga 15.
Uwo musesenguzi avuga ko ari intambara isaba ubwitonzi.
Avuga ko hagomba ubwitonzi ku ruhande rwa NATO kuko bashobora kwibeshya bakinjira mu rugamba nabi bigatuma urugamba ruba rubi kurushaho. Kwinjira muri iyi ntambara kwa NATO mu buryo bweruye ubundi bisobanuye gukoresha ibitwaro kirimbuzi. Hagize rero ubikoresha, Russia n’abayiyunzeho barimo China, North Korea ntibabyihanganira.
Ati “Icyo gihe isi yaba igiye habi, ariko kandi uruhande rwa NATO ni rwo rwabihomberamo cyane.”
Ese Amerika yakora iki, ntikora ku nshuti zayo nka Israel, u Bwongereza n’ibindi bigatera u Burusiya?
Niyonzima ati “Amerika isa n’iri mu rungabangabo. Yahugiye mu kumera nk’intare itontomera mu ishyamba ikanga yibwira ko gukanga kwayo guhagije.
Yabaye nk’itungurwa kuko ntiyari yiteze ko Russia yakwinjira muri ruriya rugamba mu buryo bweruye.
Ese ntishobora kuba intambara ya gatatu y’Isi
Simbibona kuko NATO ntiyakora iryo kosa. Baraguma bafatire Russia ibihano mu rwego rw’ubukungu gusa.
Ikindi gishoboka ni ugusubira ku ntebe y’ibiganiro NATO ikemera ko Ukraine itazaba umunyamuryango wayo amahoro agataha.
U Rwanda n’ibihugu byo mu karere bihagaze he? Ntibyakwigaragaza bigasubizanywa ibitutsi nka Kenya?
Niyonzima ati “N’ubwo tuzabihomberamo mu rwego rw’ubukungu, ntacyo ibihugu byo mu karere bifite cyo gukora. Urugamba rubera hariya rurenze ubushobozi bwabyo. Icyiza ni ukwituriza bikareka ibihugu by’ibihangange bikihanganira.
Uru rugamba ariko na none, rushobora no kuzaba inyungu kuri Africa ku rundi ruhande kuko ibihugu bikize bizarangira bibonye ko gukomeza kuvogera ubusugire bw’ibindi bihugu, igihe icyo ari cyo cyose byababyarira ibibazo batari biteze.
Ku bijyanye n’ibiciro bya gazi, ntabwo biziyongera?
Niyonzima ati “Bizasaba igihe ngo icyuho cya gazi yo muri Russia kizibwe. Gaz irahari ku bwinshi muri Africa ariko isi ntiyiteguye ngo iyifashe mu kuyicukura no kuyitunganya mbere y’igihe. Hizewe umuyoboro umwe, ari wo w’u Burisiya.
Hari gaz nyinshi muri Mozambique ishobora kuziba icyuho, hari na gaz muri Tanzania n’ahandi.
Gusa birumvikana ko kuyicukura bitarateguwe kare byasaba igihe.
Byinshi kuri iyo ntambara
Umwanya muto mbere y’uko u Burusiya butangiza intambara kuwa kane, Putin yagiye kuri televiziyo atangaza ko Uburusiya “budashobora gutekana, gutera imbere, no kubaho” kubera icyo yise ikibazo gihoraho cya Ukraine y’ibi bihe.
Impamvu nyinshi yatanze zari ibinyoma cyangwa zirimo kuyobya. Yavuze ko intego ye ari ukurengera abaturage bahohoterwa kandi bashobora gukorerwa jenoside hamwe no “kwambura intwaro no gukura imikorere y’aba-Nazi” muri Ukraine.
Nta jenoside iri muri Ukraine – ni igihugu kirimo demokarasi kiyoborwa n’umutegetsi w’umuyahudi. Perezida Volodymr Zelensky yagize ati: “Ni gute naba umu-Nazi?” ahubwo agereranya ibitero by’Abarusiya n’iby’aba-Nazi mu ntambara ya kabiri y’isi.
Perezida Putin kenshi yashinje Ukraine kwigarurirwa n’abahezanguni, kuva uwahoze ari perezida ushyigikiwe n’Uburusiya, Viktor Yanukovych, yavanwa ku butegetsi mu 2014 nyuma y’imyigaragambyo yamaze amezi yamagana ubutegetsi bwe.
Uburusiya bwahise bwihimura maze butera amajyepfo bufata umwigimbakirwa wa Crimea kandi bushyigikira inyeshyamba mu burasirazuba, zitangira kurwanya leta mu ntambara imaze kugwamo abantu bagera ku 14,000.
Mu mpera za 2021 Putin yatangiye kohereza ingabo ku mipaka y’igihugu cye na Ukraine. Maze muri iki cyumweru arenga ku masezerano y’amahoro ya 2015 atangaza ko uduce two mu burasirazuba tugenzurwa n’inyeshyamba ari leta bemera ko zigenga.
Uburusiya kuva cyera bwarwanyije ko Ukraine yinjira mu muryango w’Ubumwe bw’Uburayi hamwe no mu ishyirahamwe ryo gutabarana rya NATO/OTAN. Atangaza ibitero by’Uburusiya, Putin yashinje NATO kugariza “amateka yacu n’imbere hazaza hacu nk’igihugu.”
Uburusiya buzagarukira he?
Uburusiya bwanze kwemera niba bushaka gukuraho ubutegetsi bwatowe muri Ukraine, nubwo buvuga ko mu by’ukuri Ukraine ikwiye “kubohorwa, igakurwamo aba-Nazi”. Putin yavuze ibyo kugeza mu nkiko “abakoze ibyaha byinshi byo kumena amaraso y’abasivile”.
Biraboneka neza ko igitero cyavuye mu majyaruguru muri Bielorussie hamwe no gufata ikibuga cy’indege kiri hafi ya Kyiv nta gushidikanya umurwa mukuru uri mu mboni ze.
Mu minsi yabanjirije ibitero, ubwo abasirikare bagera ku 200,000 bari hfi ya Ukraine ku mipaka, yari yibanze cyane ku burasirazuba.
Mu kwemera nk’ibihugu byigenga ibice byafashwe n’inyeshyamba bya Donetsk na Luhansk, byari ukwemeza ko aho hantu hatakiri muri Ukraine. Maze ahishura ko ashyigikiye imigambi yabo yo kwagura ubutaka bwabo imbere muri Ukraine. Izo repubulika zifite igice kitageze neza kuri 1/3 cy’ubuso bwose bw’uturere twa Donetsk na Luhansk ubwatwo.
Putin arashaka iki?
Perezida Putin impamvu yindi ku bitero kuri Ukraine yavuze ni ukwaguka kwa NATO igana iburasirazuba. Mbere yavuze ko ari nkaho Uburusiya “butagifite aho guhungira – batekereza ko tuzicara tukarebera?”
Ukraine irifuza kwinjira muri NATO nubwo itarabisaba, gusa visi minisitiri w’ububanyi n’amahanga w’Uburusiya Sergei Ryabkov yavuze ko: “kuri twe ni itegeko ko Ukraine itagomba kandi itazigera iba muri NATO.”
Umwaka ushize Putin yanditse inkuru ndende asobanura abarusiya n’abanya-Ukraine “nk’igihugu kimwe”. Avuga ko Ukraine yo muri iki gihe yashinzwe n’abakomunisti b’Abarusiya ariko ubu itegekwa n’ibikinisho by’iburasirazuba.
Putin yavuze kandi ko niba Ukraine igiye muri NATO, iryo shyirahamwe rizagerageza kwisubiza Crimea.
Ariko Uburusiya ntabwo bureba kuri Ukraine gusa. Burasaba ko NATO isubira ku mipaka yayo yo mu 1997.
Putin arashaka ko ingabo za NATO n’ibikorwa byayo bya gisirikare bivanwa mu bihugu byayinjiyemo kuva mu 1997 kandi ntiyohereze “ibisasu hafi y’umupaka w’Uburusiya”. Ibyo bivuze ibihugu byo hagati, n’iburasirazuba bw’Iburayi hamwe na leta za Estonia, Latvia na Lithuania
Kuri Putin, mu 1990 NATO yizeje ko itazagukaho “na centimetero imwe igana iburasirazuba” ariko yaranze irabikora.
Aho ni mbere yo gusenyuka kwa leta zunze ubumwe z’Abasoviyeti, ubwo avuga ko ibyo byizejwe perezida wabo Mikhail Gorbachev hashingiwe ku burasirazuba bw’Ubudage mu kwifuza ko Ubudage bwongera kuba bumwe.
Mikhail Gorbachev nyuma yavuze ko “ingingo yo kwaguka kwa NATO itigeze iganirwaho” icyo gihe.
NATO ni iki yavuze?
Iri shyirahamwe ryo gutabarana kw’ibihugu rifunguriye ibihugu bibishaka, hamwe n’ibihugu 30 birigize, rivuga ko ntacyo rizahindura.
Ukraine ntirinjira muri iryo shyirahamwe kandi umukuru w’Ubudage aheruka kuvuga ko nta mugambi wa vuba ko izajyamo byihuse.
